Pahalgam Terror Attack Could Set Back Kashmir’s Tourism by a Decade

Before the recent Pahalgam Terror attack, tourism contributed approximately 7 to 8 percent to Jammu and Kashmir’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). With the nominal GSDP for 2024–25 estimated at ₹2.65 lakh crore, this places the annual value of the tourism sector in the range of ₹18,500 to ₹21,200 crore. Some estimates peg the annual tourism industry at around ₹12,000 crore, with projections to reach ₹25,000 to ₹30,000 crore by 2030 if growth continued without problems.

In the last few years, Kashmir saw an impressive rise in tourist numbers. Visitor arrivals jumped from 34 lakh in 2020 to a record 2.36 crore in 2024. This also included more than 65,000 foreign tourists. The current year started on a high note as well, with over 8 lakh visitors coming to the Tulip Garden in Srinagar in just 26 days. These numbers showed the success of efforts made to promote Kashmir as a safe and attractive destination.

However, the recent terror attack in Pahalgam has put all this progress at serious risk. The attack, which targeted tourists directly, has caused widespread fear across the region. Many tourists who were already in the area left quickly, while future bookings were canceled almost overnight.

Pahalgam Terror Attack Could Set Back Kashmir’s Tourism by a Decade — Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam, Location of the attack in Jammu and Kashmir

Hotels that had been fully booked are now empty. Travel agencies and guides say that more than 60 percent of bookings were canceled in the days following the attack. Popular restaurants and sightseeing spots that were once crowded now stand deserted. Local business owners, many of whom depend entirely on tourism, are calling this the biggest crisis in years.

The loss is not just in numbers. It is also about the thousands of livelihoods connected to the tourism industry. These include taxi drivers, hotel staff, pony riders, shikara boatmen, local guides, street vendors, and more. Many are daily wage earners who now find themselves without any source of income.

The situation has also led to new travel warnings. The US State Department issued an updated “Do Not Travel” advisory for Jammu and Kashmir. It warned travelers about the high risk of terrorism and civil unrest. This has added another layer of fear, especially for foreign tourists. Many other countries may soon update their travel advisories as well.

Tourism had become a symbol of peace and progress in the region. By targeting this sector, the attackers may have aimed to slow down that progress and push people back into fear and frustration.

Some security analysts believe that Pahalgam was chosen for its visibility. It is one of the most visited places in Kashmir and also part of the route for the Amarnath Yatra. An attack here draws maximum attention and has a lasting effect on public sentiment and economic confidence.

Right now, there is no clear plan on how long recovery will take. Some government officials have promised to help the affected families and strengthen security. The coming months will be critical. Whether Kashmir’s tourism industry can bounce back depends on quick action, better security, and restoring trust among travelers.