Pakistan Could Face Flash Floods and Severe Water Shortages Due to Indus Waters Treaty Suspension

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, has helped India and Pakistan share river water peacefully for more than 60 years. The treaty gives Pakistan full rights to use the waters of three important rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. These rivers provide about 80 percent of the total water flow from the Indus river system and are essential for Pakistan’s farming, drinking water, and electricity.

Now, the suspension of the treaty by India could cause a major crisis in Pakistan, affecting millions of people across the country. Pakistan’s economy depends heavily on farming. Agriculture makes up about 23 to 24 percent of the country’s total economy and gives jobs to a large part of the population. Nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s farmland, about 16 million hectares, relies on water from the Indus river system.

The rivers not only feed farms but also supply water to major cities like Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Hyderabad, and Karachi. Without enough water, farms could dry up, food prices could rise, and cities could face drinking water shortages. On the other hand, if India suddenly releases large amounts of water without warning, it could cause severe flooding in these areas, damaging crops, homes, and infrastructure.

Punjab and Sindh, two of the most populated provinces in Pakistan, lie along the Indus and its tributaries. These areas are home to more than half the country’s population. If the Indus waters are cut off or reduced, Pakistan’s farmers will suffer first. Two major crops at risk are cotton and rice.

Cotton is vital to Pakistan’s textile industry, which makes up 8 percent of the economy and gives jobs to nearly half of the industrial workforce. Cotton is planted between April and June and needs plenty of water. If water is not available during this time, the country’s production of 7 million bales each year could fall sharply.

Rice, especially the Basmati variety, is planted in May and needs canal water to grow properly. If canal water runs short, farmers will need to use expensive groundwater, which raises costs. Poor-quality Basmati rice could also lose its appeal in the global market, allowing India to take a larger share. Pakistan earns about 2.5 billion dollars each year from rice exports, which could drop.

Together, the loss in cotton and rice exports could cost Pakistan 3 to 4 billion dollars every year. If crops fail, food prices across the country are likely to rise. Everyday items like wheat and sugar could become more expensive, putting pressure on families. Small farmers, who already live with tight budgets, may face bankruptcy.

Agriculture supports 37.4 percent of all jobs in Pakistan. If farming fails, many people could lose work. Water from rivers is also used to make electricity. Pakistan depends on dams like Mangla and Tarbela, but these can store only about 10 percent of the water the country gets under the treaty. If river flow drops, electricity production will also drop. This can lead to more power cuts across the country.

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Big cities depend on Indus river water for drinking. Karachi, Lahore, and Multan could face major water shortages. This can lead to panic during summer months when water needs are high.

Pakistan may challenge the treaty suspension in the International Court of Justice or through the World Bank. The country could argue that stopping river water goes against global rules about sharing rivers between nations.

Even before this situation, Pakistan was one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Water available per person has been falling for years. The country also has very few big water storage projects.

If the Indus Waters Treaty is suspended, Pakistan could face long-term problems. Crop failures, higher food prices, water shortages in cities, and job losses in rural areas could all happen at once. The country’s economy, food system, and political stability are all at risk.

Today, the world stands firmly with India following the recent terror attack. Pakistan has repeatedly failed to dismantle the extremist networks operating within its borders, despite years of warnings. By continuing to shelter and support terrorist groups, Pakistan has isolated itself from the international community.

Now, it is beginning to suffer the consequences of its own actions. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could mark the beginning of a much deeper crisis. If Pakistan refuses to change course, it will face growing economic hardship, political instability, and global isolation — and it will have no one to blame but itself.